Putin's War
Tulips bloom in Kharkiv, May 2022—photo by Quentin Sommerville/BBC
“That is perhaps a weapon Russia underestimated - the force of Ukrainian solidarity. Even before Western military aid began arriving here, this was what anchored Ukraine's defences . Among the group of volunteers are an economist, a businessman, a mechanic, and a rally-driving champion.” from BBC report by Quentin Sommerville
Today’s Wapo headline reads Putin: War Is Against Nazis. The problem with making up shit is once you start you have to keep digging.
It’s not over, not by a long shot, but it doesn’t seem to be going Putin’s way. Hasn’t been going his way since he started. Of course, it hasn’t been going the way of the Ukrainian civilians either, seeing their towns being bombed back to rubble, but the war proves one thing: it’s very hard to crush an entire people with tanks and bombs if they are determined not to lay down. It doesn’t seem like the Ukrainians are ready to do that.
The joke is on Putin. Here, the vaunted ex-KGB officer spent a lifetime being paid supposedly to study his enemy’s weaknesses, and he couldn’t even grasp what was going on in the country next door—or he didn’t like what he saw yet had no solution. Obviously, he couldn’t figure how to stop Ukraine from leaving the Russian orbit. So he expected a tyrant’s temper tantrum was going to work? His behavior is truly puzzling.
Failure’s not an option? Failure is always an option when gambling on bad information and swallowing your own propaganda. So, here Putin sits, knowing the U.S. is witnessing in real time how incompetent his invasion has been. It must grind on him. Sadly, he’s less likely now to back down.
If you recall that scene in Star Wars, Darth Vader grabbed his general wearing the vaguely-SS uniform by the throat to boil his brains for his failures. I wouldn’t want to be wandering the halls in the Kremlin just now.
You have to know Xi Jinping’s generals are following the story just as closely. Have they hitched their wagon to a lame horse? At the least, they shouldn’t worry about the Russian army presently. It will take a while to rebuild. Perhaps the Chinese would want to revisit the question of who owns Vladivostok? Among the other things Putin didn’t grasp was the weakness of his own military. From all accounts, it’s the gang who can’t shoot straight, from generals to foot soldiers. All they seem proficient at is bombing apartment buildings and cold-blooded executions.
One can hope the Chinese will decide to wait on invading Taiwan. Witnessing the stubborn Ukrainian resistance should give them pause. The Chinese strong-arm treatment of Hong Kong already sent a clear message to the people of Taiwan regarding what they might expect from Beijing. Xi Jinping might have thought to be a little more circumspect with Hong Kong. Seems like he telegraphed his plans for Taiwan instead. If he learns patience from Putin’s invasion, that would be one good outcome for the world from this present bloody mess.
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Presumably Pentagon officials are strategizing on best outcomes. Will it be possible for the Ukrainian army to push Putin’s thugs completely out of Ukraine? Will they be satisfied with getting back to the previous stalemate? How long with the U.S. and allies continue to feed weapons to them? Answering the last question gives the best clue.
Just for the sacrifices the Ukrainians paid, will we help them recover Crimea? Mariupol?
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What I don’t understand is why Biden gets so little credit for what this administration has done to date to push back against Putin.
It is one more example of how much domestic issues control national politics—and the news—in this country. Funny how, for so long, the Republican playbook was to attack the Democrats on their ‘weak side’ over foreign policy, yet here we are with a Democratic president exercising U.S. policy like a grand master playing a schoolboy, and his poll numbers are in the toilet.
The press’s focus on the polls isn’t helping him, nor are the disgruntled remnants from the 2020 election. This country’s polity still hasn’t recovered.
Now along comes the Supreme Court about to pour more gasoline on the embers. Whatever people may feel about abortion, left and right, now isn’t the time. Thank you, Samuel Alito. Praise the Lord for your blessed timing. Here’s to you joining Roger Taney in the history books. You deserve each other.
Whether enough people in this country recall what it was like during Trump’s four years of foreign policy fiascos, the poll numbers don’t reflect it. We haven’t finished prosecuting all the January 6 rioters. Makes no sense.
Everything else aside, where would Europe be if Trump were still in office other than in deep kimchee.
Of course, after George Bush Senior pulled his coalition together against Saddam to kick him out of Kuwait, finessing his foreign policy didn’t protect him at the next election. One minute he had his highest approval ratings and the next he’d been sent back to Kennebunkport. Bush got beat by the economy by the man from Hope. I didn’t love Bush’s domestic politics, but it did seem ungracious just how quickly the country turned against him. And the Brits kicked Churchill to the side of the road after he’d carried his country through World War II.
I’ll give Trump credit for his hissy fit over Europe not funding their own defense, as indelicately as he put it to them. But being right on the issue and screwing up the outcome isn’t effective leadership. It isn’t even good politics. Compare that to Biden and Company. Strong diplomacy actually has a chance—backed by lots of weaponry.
Maybe we’ll get lucky. We and the Europeans got lucky already, finding a people willing to fight for themselves. Seems there are true patriots in Ukraine nobody knew existing. The cynics may claim Europe and the U.S are letting the Ukrainians do the dirty work. But what would they say if the Ukrainians laid down and let Putin’s tanks roll over them?
When the dust settles and the tanks finally leave, which they’ll have to do eventually, the second large test for the U.S. and Europe will come: collectively how willing will we be to help Ukraine get back on its feet. Invite them to join the EU?
The single best proposal—made by the Ukrainian comedian, Zelenskyy—was to let Ukraine remain neutral, defended by sufficient—NATO?---powers to protect their neutrality. Though we’d best hold onto those frozen Russian reserves to pay for the destruction brought by that Russian clown.
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Putin should have kept to his Kremlin office with his palace guard and the white and gold table that goes for an absurd length, taking pot shots at his enemies via social media instead of sending his tanks into Ukraine. His war of words had been working pretty well for him.
Putin was made for the Age of Twitter, then he lost his mind.
He had Trump’s party around his little finger and helped split Europe nearly in half by his lies and mudslinging. Plus, it was a whole lot cheaper to keep Europe soft and divided. Now that Germany is rearming, the best he can hope for is that it remains a peaceful democracy. Macron may even have the leverage he needs to convince the rest of Europe it’s time to get serious about unification.
No one can explain convincingly why Hitler thought he could succeed in invading Russia. Do despots always grab for something beyond their reach, or just the ones who swallow their own propaganda?
Here, Putin had southern neighbors who spoke his language, attended his same church, followed Russian culture, and all he could see was red. Now he has a hornets’ nest of folks who very well might be planning their revenge, and borders stretching from Finland right around to Georgia rearming against him. Clever move, Vlad.
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Read today’s opinion piece in the NY Times by Tom Stevenson, America and Its Allies Want to Bleed Russia. They Really Shouldn’t. Seems we better watch out or this war might get out of control. Don’t you think it was out of control on February 24? What were we supposed to do, let Putin take another chunk of Ukraine because that would keep us and the remaining Ukrainians safe? Stevenson might want to ask what the Ukrainians think.
We are in a war, and we’d better win it.